Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams NFL Draft Preview

By T.J. Besler

Posted on March 26, 2024

Caleb Williams Post-NFL Draft

Rookie quarterbacks rarely have it as good as Caleb Williams will have it in 2024.  With two top-notch veteran receivers (Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore), two good tight ends (Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett), an upgrade to the running back room with the addition of the dual-threat D’Andre Swift with a receiving element, a young, talented rookie wide receiver (Odunze), a solid offensive line and a play-caller he’s familiar with Williams is set up for success.  His strong arm, playmaking ability, and often-overlooked rushing chops could make him a solid selection regardless of format.  In 1QB redraft leagues, there is some risk to making him your starter but he does have enough upside to make it worth it, and in dynasty, I view him as a surefire top-5 pick.  While he does sometimes try to do too much that can be coached out of him and won’t be as necessary with all the talent surrounding him.  The expectations are high, perhaps too high, but it’s hard for me to imagine him not being able to find a solid level of success in 2024 and develop into a top talent at the position for years.

Caleb Williams NFL Draft Preview

The Chicago Bears nearly took all the suspense out of what was going to happen with the No. 1 pick when they pulled the trigger on trading Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Now it’s all but certain, assuming they don’t trade down, that they will be selecting USC’s Caleb Williams at No. 1.  Williams is the consensus #1 pick in this year’s draft, coming into the season with high expectations, even garnering comparisons by some to superstar Patrick Mahomes.  Williams started his college career by baking up fellow draft prospect Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma but replaced him in a matchup against Texas, leading the Sooners from an 18-point deficit to a seven-point victory.  Williams finished that season 5-2 as a starter.  He then transferred to USC, where he started two years, finishing with an 18-8 record.  He also piled up accomplishments like Beyoncé piles up Grammys.  Williams won the Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell Award, AP College Football Player of the Year, PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year, and was a unanimous All-American selection (all in 2022.)  While Williams didn’t participate in drills at the NFL Combine and created waves when reports came out that he was only willing to release his medical exams to those teams with which he chose to interview, he has still put enough on tape to allow us to evaluate his value as the NFL Draft approaches.

Measurables

• Height: 6’ 1”
• Weight: 214 lbs
• Arm: 32”
• Hand: 9 3/4”

POSITIVES

Caleb Williams is a top-tier talent with good size (6-foot-1, 215 pounds) who was an elite-level producer in college.  Williams managed to put up some of the best numbers we’ve ever seen from a college QB prospect over a two-year period, accounting for 93 total touchdowns and 8,170 passing yards over that span.  It’s inarguable that, not for Williams, USC would have been far less competitive. There isn’t much you can’t ask Williams to do within an NFL offense.  He has high-end arm talent and playmaking ability both inside and outside the pocket.  Williams also provides great accuracy, extreme athleticism, and pocket awareness.  This has served him well throughout his career as a consistent escape artist feeling pressure and extending plays in ways other players cannot.  He also has a knack for keeping his eyes downfield when outside the pocket, keeping his eyes and arms alive, which has the potential to turn into either big pass plays or extra yardage on the ground as Williams locates running lanes when those plays aren’t available.  Williams also throws with enough velocity to make it a challenge to safeties all over the field.  He has also been very good in the red zone with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 46:1 since the start of the 2022 season.  These attributes should allow Williams to be more NFL-ready than we are used to in our rookie signal callers, operating well in whichever offensive scheme he lands (likely Chicago) and be a dynamic quarterback at the NFL level.

NEGATIVES

Truth be told, there are not a lot of glaring flaws in Williams’ game.  Still, there is always room for improvement for any rookie prospect and Williams is no different.  First and foremost, Williams tends to play “hero ball” often looking for the big play instead of taking what is right in front of him.  This can lead to him holding onto the ball too long.  He will have to work on getting the ball out faster if he wants to be successful at the next level.  This connects to his tendency to pass up the hot read in favor of trying to buy time with his athleticism.  So while he is quick to recognize pressure, he isn’t as quick to throw out of it and get the easy, shorter yardage plays.  Although some of this can be attributed to Head Coach Lincoln Riley’s scheme not providing any quick answers, Williams will have to learn to take the easy throw that presents itself instead of always looking for the big play downfield.  If it is the Bears, hopefully, Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can create a system that allows him to do so.  Williams also has to improve his decision-making on when to give up on a play.  He will have to improve on his sack rate.  In college, Williams took a sack on 6.6% of his dropbacks.  Ball security and accuracy can also be an issue as he plays very loose with the ball and has inconsistent ball placement at times.  But good coaching can help clean up some mechanical flaws to improve in these areas.

GRADE – A

Honestly, most of those weaknesses are me just nitpicking because there is very little not to like about the way Williams plays the game.  While he did turn some people off by not participating in drills at the NFL Combine and his comments on his medical exams, he is still regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in years.  Rookie seasons like what we saw from C.J. Stroud last year are a rare occurrence, but Chicago has been making moves this offseason to help put Williams in one of the most favorable offensive situations any rookie QB has ever had.  With weapons like Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, Gerald Everett, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift, and an offensive scheme that will be designed to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses the future looks bright for Williams.