8 Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers and Busts
Rookie Sleepers and Busts
Every year, there are a handful of rookies who exceed expectations and become fantasy football sleepers, while others fail to live up to the hype and become busts. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning and losing your league. One of the keys to success in fantasy football is finding value in the later rounds of the draft. This is where sleepers can be found, and savvy owners can gain a significant advantage over their competition. On the other hand, drafting a bust in the early rounds can be a devastating blow to a team’s chances of winning. With so much at stake, it’s important to identify the rookies who are most likely to exceed expectations and those who are most likely to disappoint. Here is my list of the top rookie sleepers to target and busts to avoid at each position.
Sleepers
Levis is a projected first-round pick and has shown impressive physical talent, but is a polarizing QB prospect. He has been falling down draft boards lately as he’s making more news on Instagram than on the football field. Levis has a strong arm and the ability to beat coverages on all three levels of the field. But the one factor that makes Levis an intriguing fantasy football sleeper is his rushing ability. Though it was not on display in college, Levis will be a legit dual-threat QB in the NFL. If he lands on a team with a strong supporting cast and a good offensive scheme, he could have immediate fantasy relevance. For fantasy managers willing to take a chance on a high-upside player, Levis is a name to watch in both dynasty and seasonal leagues.
🚨UPDATE: Kentucky superstar quarterback Will Levis has Top-30 Visits with the Tennessee #Titans today, and plans to have visits with the Atlanta #Falcons and Tampa Bay #Buccaneers, source says.#NFL General Managers on Levis:
“Levis is the most talented QB of this class, and… pic.twitter.com/ar3c018l1x
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) April 11, 2023
Despite his impressive college career, Evans is currently undervalued in fantasy drafts, making him a prime candidate to outperform his draft position. He suffers from a lack of name recognition. He played for a Louisville team that went 8-5, and he was not a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school. However, his production on the field cannot be ignored. His combination of size (225 pounds) and speed (4.52 40-yard dash) make him an intriguing prospect. He has the potential to greatly outperform his expectations and provide tremendous value for those who draft him.
At 5-foot-11 and 187 pounds, Reed is a versatile outside receiver who possesses excellent ball skills and is a threat to score on any given play. His speed and agility make him a dangerous weapon in the open field, and he has the potential to put up big numbers in the right offense. He’s a Day 2 pick with a Day 1 upside. He’s being compared to players like Stefon Diggs and T.Y. Hilton. You won’t find a late-round player with more upside than Reed.
Big fan of Jayden Reed as a sleeper in this WR class. He is just a couple of tweaks away from being a really good player. pic.twitter.com/1pwFVBQeLL
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 17, 2023
LaPorta has great fluidity and quick feet for a player his size, though his speed is only average, which affects his route running and yards-after-catch skills. However, he has reliable hands and a massive route tree, making him an effective first-down converter with good tracking ability. Despite the struggles of the Iowa passing attack, LaPorta remained steady and produced consistently throughout his college career. He may not have the high-end speed or explosiveness to be a truly dangerous player, but LaPorta has the potential to be a high-end No. 2 tight end out of the gate with the potential to grow into something more in the right offense.
Busts
Despite his impressive performance in the Senior Bowl, Haener has not played against a lot of top-level competition. It’s going to be difficult for him to adjust to the speed and talent of the NFL. His lack of mobility could limit his ability to extend plays and make plays outside of the pocket. Haener’s accuracy suffers when he throws downfield and he tends to fade away from pressure, which could lead to a lot of interceptions in the NFL. His accuracy issues, struggles under pressure, and questionable skill set and scheme fit make him a risky pick. Fantasy football owners would be wise to look elsewhere for their quarterback needs.
While Achane has shown promise as a ball carrier with his lateral quickness and quick-scan vision, his size at 5’9” and 188 pounds may limit his ability to have a traditional role in the NFL. Achane has a “ridiculous home run gear”, but he may not be consistent enough to rely on as a dependable fantasy contributor. He should put up good efficiency numbers in his rookie season, but it’s doubtful those will add up to reliable fantasy points. At his current Best Ball ADP, I think you can find higher upside in RBs taken in later rounds.
Hyatt is known for his speed and big-play ability, but there are concerns about his ability to transition to the NFL and make an impact in fantasy football. He played in a unique up-tempo offense at Tennessee that utilized wide splits. This offensive style may have inflated his stats and made him look better than he actually is. There are legitimate concerns about his route running and ability to make contested catches. I’m staying away at his current ADP.
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
At 6’7″ and 280 pounds, Washington is a massive physical specimen with outstanding play strength and toughness. However, despite his impressive size, there are reasons to believe that he will be a bust at his current ADP for fantasy football. Washington’s on-field explosiveness is above-average at best, and far below the elite level that is required to be a top-tier fantasy tight end. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, he has not consistently produced at a high level. Washington’s role in the Georgia offense was primarily as a traditional in-line tight end, which limits his potential as a fantasy asset. While he may have some value as a late-round flier, fantasy owners should not expect him to be a game-changer in the near future.
2023 Dynasty Rankings
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Doug Burrell finished 2022 as Fantasy Nerd’s Most Accurate Expert in NFL Picks and Tallysight’s #1 ranked expert Against the Spread Expert out of 200+ experts. He is a veteran, a runner and an avid fantasy sports enthusiast since 1999. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.
